| In FY24A, Green Oleo recorded a production value of €72.12 million, of which €71.24 million was attributable to sales revenues, €-0.02 million related to the negative change in inventories, and €0.90 million referred to other revenues and income. EBITDA amounted to €3.00 million, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 4.2% on the production value. EBIT showed a negative figure for 2024, amounting to €-0.37 million, due to D&A of €2.85 million and provisions of €0.51 million. Net Income was negative, amounting to €-1.00 million. Net Financial Position stood at €11.91 million, improving from €14.35 million in the previous year. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY24A, we are revising our estimates for the current year as well as for the coming years. Specifically, we estimate a production value of € 75.00 million for FY25E and an EBITDA of € 3.70 million, with an EBITDA margin of 4.9%. For the following years, we forecast a progressive increase in the production value, reaching € 83.40 million in FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 5.0%) and an EBITDA of € 7.35 million (EBITDA margin of 8.8%), up from € 3.00 million in FY24A (margin of 4.2%). At the balance sheet level, we estimate a NFP of € 7.34 million for FY27E. We conducted the equity valuation of Green Oleo based on the DCF methodology and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which, for prudential purposes, includes a specific risk premium of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of €62.8 million. The equity value of Green Oleo based on market multiples amounts to €37.2 million. This results in an average equity value of approximately €50.00 million. The target price is €1.55, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
