| On 25 June 2024, Bellini Nautica communicated the approval by the Board of Directors of the consolidated Industrial Plan of the Bellini Group for the 2024-2027 period. Over the next few years, in addition to the growth of the traditional business activities of the Bellini Group in the trading of new and used boats, under the Riva brand and in related ancillary services, Bellini Nautica will also launch the business line presided over by Bellini Yacht. The new line will focus on the production and sale of boats measuring between 36 and 66 feet under the Bellini Yacht brand. Thanks to the greater scalability and growth potential of the new business line, Bellini Yacht’s sales revenues will represent a increasing share of total consolidated revenues, exceeding the revenues deriving from the traditional business activities of the Bellini Group. Taking into account the guidelines shared by the Company through its press release, we are modifying our estimates, both for the current year and for subsequent years. In particular, we estimate a FY24E Value of Production of € 20.45 million and an EBITDA of € 1.30 million, corresponding to a margin of 6.4%. For subsequent years, we expect the Value of Production to increase to € 57.85 million (CAGR 23A*-27E: 32.7%) in FY27E, with an EBITDA of € 9.00 million (corresponding to a margin of 15.6%), up from € 1.17 million in FY23A* (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 6.3%). As far as estimated investments are concerned, we expect a 2024E-2027E Capex equal to approximately € 5.75 million. We conducted the valuation of Bellini Nautica’s equity value based on the DCF methodology. The DCF method (which, in the calculation of the WACC, also includes a specific risk equal to 2.5% for prudential purposes) returns an equity value equal to € 33.5 million. The target price is € 5.25, BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |