| The value of production came in at € 18.87 million, compared to € 16.46 million recorded at the end of 2022, and to our previous report’s estimated of € 18.95 million. EBITDA, at the end of the 2023 financial year, amounted to € 3.02 million, up from € 1.74 million in 2022 (+73.5%), and essentially consistent with our estimate. The EBITDA margin for the period was therefore 16.0%, clearly growing from the 10.6% of the previous year and our estimate of 15.6%. Net income, at the end of 2023, amounted to € 1.21 million, higher than the figure for the previous period, equal to € 0.74 million. In light of the results published in the Annual Report for FY23A, we substantially confirm our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we estimate an FY24E value of production of € 20.45 million, and an EBITDA of € 3.35 million, corresponding to a margin of 16.4%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 23.45 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 7.5%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 4.50 million (corresponding to a margin of 19.2%), up from € 3.02 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 16.0%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Simone based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 24.4 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Simone was calculated as € 22.1 million (including a 25.0% discount). The result is an average equity value of approximately € 23.3 million. The target price is € 3.10, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |