| In 2024, ISCC recorded a strong economic improvement, with revenues nearly tripling to € 8.76 million and a positive EBITDA of € 2.40 million (EBITDA margin of 27.8%) after the negative result of the previous year. Net Income returned positive at € 1.05 million, confirming the success of the NPL portfolio valorization strategy. The improvement in profitability was accompanied by efficient cost management and stronger cash generation, resulting in a cash-positive NFP of € 0.59 million. Among the key operations, we mention the resumption of securitized portfolio resale activities (€ 5.18 million during the year) and the participation in the Illimity SGR Granular NPL Fund through the contribution of assets. This transaction allowed the recognition of an equity investment of € 3.60 million against the book value of € 2.00 million of the contributed receivables, generating a capital gain of € 1.60 million. In light of the results published in the FY24A annual report, we have updated our estimates for the next three years by adopting a more conservative approach, based on a revised growth trajectory for the value of production, now expected to be more evenly distributed over time compared to previous assumptions. The new forecasts indicate a progressive top-line expansion, projected at € 10.25 million in 2025 and € 15.20 million in 2027 (FY24A–FY27E CAGR: 20.2%), and an EBITDA trajectory showing exponential growth, driven by increased operational efficiency and operating leverage. Estimated EBITDA is € 3.65 million in 2025 and € 7.50 million in 2027, with margins improving from 27.8% in 2024 to 50.0% in 2027. We conducted our valuation using both the DCF method and the Excess Return approach: the DCF, which prudentially includes a 2.5% specific risk premium in the WACC, yields an equity value of € 59.0 million, while the Excess Return method produces a value of € 57.0 million. The resulting average equity value is approximately € 58.0 million. We set a target price of € 4.50, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
