| In the 2023 annual report, the Group closed the fiscal year with revenue of €2.58 million. This result is lowen than €4.45 million recorded in FY22A and below our previous report’s estimates. This is attributable to the absence of proceeds from resale activities, which had contributed approximately €3.00 million in the previous year and were expected to generate most of the period’s revenue in 2023. EBITDA is equal to -€2.34 million, compared to €0.95 million in 2022 and was affected by the absence of resale activity revenue. Consequently, EBIT was also negative at -€3.35 million, against €0.03 million in FY22A, and Net Income settled at -€3.39 million (-€0.03 million in FY22A). In light of the results published in the annual report for FY23A, we are revising our estimates for the current year and beyond. Specifically, we estimate a production value for FY24E of €10.00 million, with an EBITDA of €4.40 million, corresponding to a margin of 44.0%; in subsequent years, we expect the production value to grow to €19.10 million, with an EBITDA of €11.20 million and a margin of 58.6%. We conducted a valuation of ISCC Fintech’s equity value using the DCF and Excess Return methodologies. The DCF method, which prudently includes a specific risk of 2.5% in the WACC calculation, gives an equity value of €106.2 million. Using the Excess Return method, the equity value of ISCC Fintech is €75.7 million. This results in an average equity value of approximately €90.9 million. The target price is €7.05, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |