| As of the end of 2024, the consolidated value of production for the Spindox Group amounted to € 111.77 million, reflecting an 11.9% increase compared to € 99.85 million recorded in FY23A. Normalized EBITDA at the end of FY24A stood at € 9.93 million, marking a significant increase both compared to the previous year (+37.4% vs € 7.23 million in FY23A) and to our previous estimate of € 8.75 million. As a result, the EBITDA margin reached 8.9%, up from 7.2% at the end of the previous year. EBIT, after depreciation and amortization totaling € 3.96 million, amounted to € 4.55 million in FY24A, showing an increase of 59.1% compared to € 2.86 million in the previous year. Net Income stood at € 0.99 million, up from both the previous year (€ 0.25 million) and our estimate (€ 0.85 million). In light of the results published in the annual report for FY24A, we are revising our estimates for both the current year and the following years. Specifically, we estimate a value of production of € 120.00 million for FY25E, with EBITDA of € 10.80 million, corresponding to a margin of 9.0%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 156.00 million by FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 11.8%), with EBITDA reaching € 15.60 million (corresponding to a margin of 10.0%), up from € 9.93 million in FY24A (EBITDA margin of 8.9%). From a balance sheet perspective, we estimate a cash-positive NFP of € 7.20 million by FY27E. We conducted the valuation of Spindox’s equity value using both the DCF methodology and the market multiples of a peer group of comparable companies. The DCF method (which includes, for prudential purposes, a specific risk premium of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) results in an equity value of € 99.9 million. The equity value derived from market multiples amounts to € 89.7 million. This results in an average equity value of approximately € 94.8 million. The target price is set at € 15.80. We confirm our BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
