| Green Oleo, in its financial report as of December 31, 2023, recorded a value of production of € 62.58 million, of which € 60.57 million attributable to sales revenues, € 2.61 million related to a negative change in inventories, and € 4.62 million representing the item of other revenues. EBITDA amounted to € 1.55 million, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 2.5% on the value of production. EBIT, considering the above, came in with a negative value for 2023, equal to € -1.26 million, after depreciation and amortization of € 2.81 million. Net Income was negative, equal to € -0.59 million. In light of the FY23A results, we have modified our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we now estimate an FY24E value of production of € 67.20 million, and an EBITDA of € 4.70 million, corresponding to a margin of 7.0%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 81.50 million in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 6.10 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 7.5 %), up from the value of € 1.55 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 2.5%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Green Oleo based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk equal to 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 78,1 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Green Oleo is € 45.0 million (including a 25.0% discount). The result gives an average equity value of approximately € 61,6 million. The target price is € 1.90 (prev. € 2.65), with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |