| In 2024, the SEIF Group recorded a value of production of € 35.92 million, up 4.0% compared to € 34.54 million in 2023 and slightly below the € 38.00 million estimated in our previous report. In FY24A, EBITDA amounted to € 3.71 million, marking strong growth (+64.2%) compared to € 2.26 million in FY23A, with the EBITDA margin expanding to 10.3% (compared to 6.5% in 2023). EBIT stood at -€ 1.55 million in FY24A, benefiting from the overall reduction in operating costs mentioned earlier and showing a significant improvement compared to -€ 3.05 million in FY23A. The EBIT margin also improved, rising from -8.8% in FY23A to -4.3% in FY24A. Similarly, Net Income amounted to -€ 1.73 million in FY24A, an improvement compared to -€ 2.39 million in FY23A and broadly in line with our estimate of -€ 1.70 million. In light of the results published in the FY24A annual report, we are revising our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. Specifically, we estimate FY25E revenues of € 36.50 million and an EBITDA of € 6.15 million, corresponding to a margin of 14.5%. In the following years, we expect revenues to increase to € 45.00 million by FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 13.8%), with EBITDA reaching € 11.70 million (corresponding to a margin of 22.3%), up from € 3.71 million in FY24A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 10.3%). Regarding the balance sheet, we estimate a cash-positive NFP of € 1.97 million for FY27E. We conducted the equity value assessment of SEIF based on the DCF methodology and the multiples of a selected peer group of comparable companies. The DCF method (which prudentially includes a specific risk premium of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of € 15.1 million. The equity value of SEIF based on market multiples amounts to € 9.5 million. This results in an average equity value of approximately € 12.3 million. The target price is € 0.55, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk level. |
