| Pozzi Milano, in its financial statements as of December 31, 2023, reported sales revenues from finished products of € 18.79 million, substantially in line, net of a small decline (-12.7%), with the turnover of the previous financial year, which closed with sales revenues of € 21.53 million. EBITDA for the period came in at € 2.35 million, marking an improvement (7.5%) compared to the FY22A data, equal to € 2.19 million, due to an improvement in the sales mix. EBIT was also positive, rising from € 1.65 million to € 1.90 million, while Net Income remained stable, going from € 1.01 to € 1.03 million. In light of the results published in the FY23A annual report, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current and the following years. In particular, we now estimate a value of production for FY24E of € 21.20 million, and an EBITDA of € 2.50 million. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 25.75 million (CAGR: FY23A–FY26E: 10.1%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 3.35 million, corresponding to a margin of 13.1%, up from € 2.35 million in FY23A, corresponding to a margin of 12.5%. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Pozzi Milano based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 52.23 million. The target price is therefore € 1.50 (prev. € 1.75), with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |