| Saccheria F.lli Franceschetti closed 2023 with revenues amounting to € 17.79 million, down compared to the equivalent figure for FY22A, equal to € 23.18 million, and to our estimate of € 19.50 million. EBITDA, equal to € 2.29 million, saw a slight decrease of -4.1% compared to € 2.39 million as of December 31, 2022 and the € 2.45 million estimated in our previous report. The EBITDA margin therefore came in at 12.9%, significantly higher than the FY22A figure, equal to 10.3%. EBIT was € 1.81 million, marking substantial parity with the figure recorded in 2022. In light of the results published in the FY23A annual report, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current and the following years. In particular, we now estimate FY24E revenues of € 18.00 million, and an EBITDA of € 2.05 million, corresponding to a margin of 11.4%. In the following years, we expect the value of revenues to reach € 21.00 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 5.7%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 2.65 million (corresponding to a margin of 12.6%), compared to € 2.29 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 12.9%). On the balance sheet, on the other hand, we estimate an NFP for FY24E of € 1.04 million of debt. We carried out the valuation of the equity value of Saccheria F.lli Franceschetti on the basis of the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 23.5 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Saccheria F.lli Franceschetti was calculated to be € 17.2 million (including a 25% discount). The results give an average equity value of approximately € 20.4 million. The target price is € 2.30, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |