| Redelfi accelerates on its BESS core business, closing 2024 with a value of production of € 19.82 million (+81.7%) and EBITDA of € 9.39 million (+85.8%), driven by the expansion of its pipeline in Italy and the US. The Group is currently developing over 8 GW of storage capacity (of which 6 GW in Italy), mainly distributed across the “Bright Storage,” “Redelfi 1,” “BESS Power,” and “Redelio” pipelines. Redelfi kicked off 2025 strongly by completing a € 8.00 million capital increase reserved to leading institutional investors, aimed at supporting the development of its US pipeline, and reaffirmed its strategic focus on BESS through the spin-off of non-core assets (Enginius and RT&L). The new 2025–2028 industrial cycle begins with a more streamlined structure, enhanced governance, and a clear positioning in the energy transition market. Considering the results achieved in the last fiscal year and the current capital structure, while awaiting further developments on the pipeline and the Company’s updated industrial plan, we confirm our economic estimates for 2025–2026 and extend our forecast to 2027. Specifically, we expect a value of production of € 26.75 million in 2025 with an EBITDA of € 14.55 million, corresponding to a margin of 54.7%. For the following years, we project a value of production increasing to € 42.50 million by FY27E (CAGR 2024–2027: 29.7%), with EBITDA reaching € 29.25 million and a margin of 69.6%. We conducted the valuation of Redelfi’s equity value using both the DCF method and a market multiples approach based on a panel of comparable companies. The DCF method – which includes a 2.5% specific risk premium as a precautionary measure – yields an equity value of € 127.4 million. The market multiples approach returns an equity value of € 142.7 million. The resulting average equity value stands at approximately € 135.2 million. We confirm our target price at € 12.00, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
