UPDATE

In 2024, Predict reported a Value of Production of € 7.34 mln, down 8.5% compared to the previous year due to a contraction in both public and private demand. Revenues amounted to € 6.63 mln, with the Imaging SBU remaining the main contributor (€ 5.17 mln). Despite market challenges, EBITDA reached € 0.81 mln, with a margin improvement to 12.2%. EBIT grew by 56.7% to € 0.51 mln, while Net Income stood at € 0.34 mln. The adjusted NFP was cash positive at € 3.25 mln, also supported by the recent listing proceeds. Based on the results published in the FY24A annual report, we are revising our estimates for both the current year and the upcoming ones. Specifically, we forecast a FY25E Value of Production of € 8.50 mln and EBITDA of € 1.00 mln, corresponding to a 12.5% margin. In the following years, we expect the Value of Production to rise to € 10.60 mln in FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 13.0%), with EBITDA reaching € 1.55 mln (15.3% margin), up from € 0.81 mln in FY24A (12.2% margin). For FY27E, we forecast a cash positive NFP of € 4.76 mln. We have conducted the equity value assessment of Predict using both the DCF methodology and multiples from a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which prudently includes a specific risk factor of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) returns an equity value of € 11.4 mln. The equity value using market multiples stands at € 9.5 mln. The resulting average equity value is approximately € 10.4 mln. The target price is € 1.45, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile.

Leggi il pdf