| During the first six months of 2024, consolidated revenues saw a decline of 26.7%, amounting to €5.51 million compared to €7.53 million in 1H23A. Despite the general slowdown in the Group’s performance, Finanza.tech demonstrated a good capacity to adapt, maintaining EBITDA stable at €1.66 million, in line with 1H23A. The EBITDA margin (calculated on revenues) improved, rising from 21.8% in 1H23A to 30.1% in the recently concluded period. EBIT suffered a significant decline, falling from €1.15 million in 1H23A to €0.45 million during the analysis period. Net Financial Position (NFP) as of June 30, 2024, is €0.92 million in debt, worsening from €0.64 million in debt as of December 31, 2023. The Net Income at the end of 1H24A amounted to €0.10 million, down from €0.80 million in the first half of 2023. In light of the results published in the half year report for the 2024 financial year, we are adjusting our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. Specifically, we estimate a revenue volume for FY24E of €7.00 million and an EBITDA of €1.60 million, corresponding to a margin of 22.9%. For the subsequent years, we expect revenue to increase to €12.20 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 4.7%) in FY26E, with EBITDA of €3.85 million (corresponding to a margin of 31.6%), an increase compared to €2.05 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 19.3%). Looking at the balance sheet, we expect an improvement in the NFP, which according to our estimates will change from €1.03 million in debt for FY24E to €1.22 million (cash positive) in FY26E. We have conducted the valuation of Finanza,Tech’s equity value based on the DCF methodology. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC also includes a specific risk of 2.5% for prudential purposes) provides an equity value of € 22.0 million. The target price is therefore € 1.65 (prev. € 2.30), we confirm BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |