| In 2024, Finanza.tech recorded revenues of € 7.21 mln, down 32.3% compared to FY23A, reflecting the expected contraction in the tax credit sector. This trend is part of a broader transformation of the business model, increasingly focused on scalable, high value-added technological solutions. The launch of the proprietary Finanza.tech platform and AI-Human Based services such as IllimiTED CFO marks a strategic turning point, aiming to generate recurring revenues and higher margins. EBITDA grew to € 2.14 mln, with an EBITDA margin of 29.7%, significantly up from 19.3% in 2023. EBIT reached € 0.51 mln, while Net Income amounted to € 0.16 mln. NFP stood at € 1.96 mln of debt, reflecting investments in the platform and human capital. Based on the results published in the FY24A annual report, we are revising our estimates for both the current and coming years. Specifically, we forecast FY25E revenues of € 5.50 mln and EBITDA of € 1.50 mln, corresponding to a margin of 27.3%. For the following years, we expect revenues to grow to € 9.70 mln in FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 10.4%), with EBITDA reaching € 3.70 mln (38.1% margin), up from € 2.14 mln in FY24A (29.7% margin). On the balance sheet side, we project an improvement in NFP, which is expected to decrease from € 1.96 mln of debt in FY24A to € 0.32 mln in FY27E. Due to the lack of comparable companies, we assessed Finanza.tech’s equity value using the DCF methodology only. The DCF method (which includes a 2.5% specific risk premium in the WACC as a precaution) yields an equity value of € 16.0 mln. The target price is € 1.20, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
