| The Value of Production came in at € 18.51 million, compared to a value of € 18.74 million recorded at the end of 2021, and slightly down on the €20.10 million estimated in our previous report. EBITDA, amounting to € 0.14 million, recorded a decrease of 85.9% compared to € 1.00 million in the previous year, and was € 0.90 million lower than expected. The EBITDA Margin, reported as 0.8%, showed a decrease compared to 5.3% in 2021, 3.7 percentage points lower than our estimate, equal to 4.5%. Net Income was negative at € -0.21 million (€ 0.47 million in 2021), lower than our expectation of € 0.34 million. In light of the results published in the Annual Report for FY22A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate an FY23E Value of Production equal to € 22.00 million, and an EBITDA equal to € 1.00 million, corresponding to a margin of 4.5%. In the following years, we expect the Value of Production to rise to € 52.35 million (CAGR 22Y-27E: 23.1%) in FY27E, with EBITDA equal to € 3.40 million (corresponding to a margin of 6.5%), up from € 0.14 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 0.8%). On the balance sheet, we estimate a cash positive NFP of € 8.46 million for FY27E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Acquazzurra based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.50% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 25.8 million. The target price is € 10.00, HOLD rating, and MEDIUM risk. |