| In 2024, Pozzi Milano exceeded expectations, reaching a production value of € 21.72 million, up 12.4% from € 19.31 million in 2023, confirming the solidity of its business model even in a complex macroeconomic environment. EBITDA remained stable at € 2.35 million, with a margin of 11.8% (vs. 12.9% in 2023), while EBIT increased to € 1.98 million (+3.9%). Net Income reached €1.09 million, marking a 6.5% increase compared to the previous year. A notable improvement in Net Financial Position (NFP) was also recorded, moving from a debt position of € 1.37 million to a positive cash position of € 0.33 million in FY24. This was made possible by solid cash generation and a rigorous optimization of working capital. The positive performance in 2024 laid the groundwork for a new phase of growth, which materialized in the early months of 2025 with two significant extraordinary transactions: the acquisition of 90.0% of Venditio SAS and 100.0% of Mascagni Casa Srl. These acquisitions aim to create an integrated Italian hub for tableware and home décor with an international vision. Given the results achieved in the past fiscal year, we have updated our forecast for the 2025–2027 period, adjusting our estimates both for the current year and for the coming years. We estimate the Value of Production for FY25E at €25.20 million, and EBITDA at €2.40 million, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 10.0%. For the following years, we expect the Value of Production to increase to €31.40 million by FY27E (representing a CAGR 24A–27E of 13.1%), with EBITDA reaching €3.60 million (EBITDA margin of 12.0%), up from €2.35 million in FY24A (EBITDA margin of 11.8%). We have conducted the equity valuation of Pozzi Milano based on the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology. The DCF method, which prudentially includes a specific risk premium of 2.5% in the WACC calculation, returns an equity value of €43.7 million. As a result, the target price is set at €1.25, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
