The value of production for 2023 amounted to € 26.40 million, an improvement on the FY22A figure of € 21.56 million, in line with our estimate of € 26.50 million. EBITDA, equal to € 4.43 million, saw growth of 14.8% compared to the figure of € 3.86 million reported for the previous year. The EBITDA margin came in at 16.8%, slightly down on the FY22A figure of 17.9%, but in line with the estimate of our previous report (17.0%). EBIT amounted to € 2.26 million (€ 2.17 million in FY22A), substantially confirming our estimate of € 2.30 million. The Net Income was € 1.27 million, in line with the last financial year’s result of € 1.34 million. The NFP reached a cash-positive value of € 0.34 million, an improvement on both FY22A’s result of € 0.04 million and our previous estimate of € 0.09 million.
In light of the results published in the FY23A annual report, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current and the following years. In particular, we now estimate an FY24E value of production of € 29.00 million, and an EBITDA of € 5.25 million, corresponding to a margin of 18.1%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 36.00 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 10.9%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 7.00 million (corresponding to a margin of 19.4%), up from € 4.63 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 16.8%).
We conducted our valuation of the equity value of FOS on the basis of the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 40.1 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of FOS was calculated to be € 39.3 million (including a 25% discount). This results is an average equity value of approximately € 39.7 million. The target price is € 5.80, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.