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Research, Update 10 Oct 2024

UPDATE – 10.10.2024

The Value of Production stands at € 15.62 million, recording a growth of 18.7% compared to a value of € 13.16 million in 1H23A. EBITDA, amounting to € 2.15 million, shows a significant increase of 17.8% compared to the first half of 2023 (€ 1.82 million). The EBITDA margin stands at 13.7%, in line with the margin of 1H23A, which was 13.8%. EBIT stands at € 1.23 million (€ 1.03 million in 1H23A). Net Income stands at € 0.85 million, compared to € 0.76 million recorded in 1H23A. The NFP shifts from € 3.80 million to € 4.90 million of debt.

In light of the results published in the 1H24A interim report, we are revising estimates for the current year as well as for the coming years. Specifically, we estimate FY24E Value of Production at € 33.90 million and EBITDA at € 4.35 million, corresponding to a margin of 12.8%. For the following years, we expect the Value of Production to increase to € 51.00 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 23.7%) in FY26E, with EBITDA reaching € 7.45 million (corresponding to a margin of 14.6%), growing from € 3.43 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 12.7%). At the financial level, we estimate a cash positive NFP of € 2.86 million for FY26E.

We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Lindbergh based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 45.5 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Lindbergh was calculated to be € 39.4 million (including a 25% discount). The results give an average equity value of approximately € 42.5 million. The target price is € 5.00, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk.
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