| As expected, the Vimi Group closed 2024 with an 8.4% decline in value of production, from € 61.35 million in 2023 to € 56.19 million, as a result of macroeconomic dynamics and destocking strategies implemented by clients, particularly in the second half of the year. Nonetheless, operations held up well in terms of cost control and a recovery in order intake already evident in the early months of the new year. EBITDA amounted to € 6.40 million, down from € 7.66 million in 2023, but with a still solid margin, well above 11.6%. Net Income came in at € 0.52 million, compared to € 1.96 million in 2023, while Net Financial Position improved from € 23.88 million in 2023 to € 20.73 million in 2024, reflecting careful cash and working capital management. In light of the results published in the FY24A annual report, we have revised our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. Specifically, we estimate FY25E value of production at € 60.00 million and EBITDA at €7.65 million, corresponding to a margin of 13.0%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase to € 67.10 million by FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 6.1%), with EBITDA reaching € 8.85 million (corresponding to a margin of 13.5%), up from € 6.40 million in FY24A (with an EBITDA margin of 11.6%). On the balance sheet side, we estimate a Net Financial Position of €13.79 million for FY27E, improving from € 20.75 million in FY24A. We have conducted the equity valuation of Vimi Fasteners using both the DCF methodology and the market multiples of a panel of comparable companies. The DCF method (which includes, for prudential purposes, a specific risk premium of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of € 32.0 million. The equity value of Vimi Fasteners based on market multiples is € 33.2 million. This results in an average equity value of approximately €32.6 million. The target price is € 2.40, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
