| In the financial report for the first half of the year, revenues amounted to €7.71 million, remaining broadly in line with the results achieved in the same period of the previous year, which were €7.62 million. The company’s EBITDA, at €1.03 million, shows significant growth compared to the €0.68 million recorded in the first half of 2023, following a positive trend also in terms of EBITDA margin, which stands at 13.3%, up from 8.9% in the previous period. Net Income is €0.39 million, marking a remarkable increase of 251.5% compared to the €0.11 million reported in the first half of 2023. NFP stands at €4.64 million in debt, showing a deterioration compared to €3.59 million as of December 31, 2023. In light of the results published in the 1H24A half-year report, we almost entirely confirm our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate 2024E revenues at €15.50 million and EBITDA at €2.00 million, corresponding to a margin of 12.9%. For the following years, we expect revenues to increase to €16.60 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 3.1%) in 2026E, with EBITDA reaching €2.45 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 14.8%), up from €1.68 million in 2023A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 11.1%). We conducted the valuation of GEL’s equity value based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € €17.6 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Gel came in at € 15.5 million (including a 25% discount). The result is an average equity value of approximately €16.5 million. The target price is €2.30, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |