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Research, Update 8 Oct 2024

UPDATE – 08.10.2024

In the first half of 2024, the Group recorded revenues of € 22.02 million, marking a decrease of -17.3% compared to € 26.63 million achieved in 1H23A. The Group’s EBITDA stands at € 3.23 million, showing a contraction of 34.8% compared to € 4.96 million in the first half of 2023. The EBITDA margin stands at 14.4%, down from 18.0% in 1H23A. The Adjusted EBIT stands at € 1.91 million, showing a decline compared to € 3.37 million recorded in the first half of 2023. The Net Income is € 1.31 million, compared to € 2.10 million in 1H23A. The Group’s NFP increased from € 5.34 million as of December 31, 2023, to € 7.01 million in the first half of 2024.

Based on the results published in the semi-annual report for 1H24A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate FY24E revenues of € 40.00 million, and an EBITDA of € 4.75 million, corresponding to a margin of 11.9%. In the following years, we expect revenues to reach € 46.40 million (CAGR 24E-27E: + 5,1%) in FY27E, with EBITDA equal to € 8.35 million (corresponding to a margin of 18.0%), up from € 8.10 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 16.3%). On the balance sheet, we estimate a debt NFP of € 2.51 million for FY27E.

We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Marzocchi Pompe based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 64.3 million. Market multiples approach led to an equity value of Marzocchi Pompe of € 33.8 million (including a 25% discount). The result is an average equity value of approximately € 49.0 million. The target price is € 7.50, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk.
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