| In the consolidated financial statement as of December 31, 2023, the first full-year of consolidation following the acquisition of Pinum Doors & Windows in 2022, Nusco reports revenues of € 56.73 million, an increase of 11.4% compared to the end-of-year figure for 2022, which was € 50.92 million. Of the total revenue, 61.0% (€ 34.60 million) is generated in Italy, while the remaining 39.0% (€ 22.13 million) comes from abroad, mainly from countries in the European Union. The period’s Adjusted EBITDA reached a record value of € 7.24 million, up 39.1% vs. FY22A (€ 5.20 million), with a margin of 12.8%; EBIT amounted to € 4.33 million, corresponding to an EBIT margin of 7.6%. Net Income was also positive, reaching € 2.20 million, doubling (+94.7%) the previous year’s figure, equal to € 1.13 million. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY23A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we estimate an FY24E value of production of € 63.50 million, and an EBITDA of € 8.40 million, corresponding to a margin of 13.5%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 76.00 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 9.0%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 11.20 million (corresponding to a margin of 15.0%), up from € 7.24 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 12.8%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Nusco based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 63.3 million. The target price is therefore € 3.40 (prev. € 3.15), with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |