| During the first half of the 2023 financial year, Mexedia Group generated consolidated revenues of € 133.36 million, up 59.4% from the 1H22A figure of € 83.68 million. The EBITDA for the period, equal to € 4.10 million, saw an increase of 1.9% compared to € 4.03 million in the first half of the previous financial year. The EBITDA Margin for the period, equal to 3.1%, was lower than the 1H22A figure of 4.8%. EBIT, after depreciation and amortization of € 0.08 million, came in at € 4.02 million (€ 3.94 million in 1H22A). Finally, the NFP came in at € 39.94 million of debt. In light of the results published in the half-year report for 1H23A, and of the recent acquisitions of PhoneTime Inc and Matchcom Inc, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate an FY23E value of production of € 280.00 million, and an EBITDA of € 13.00 million, corresponding to a margin of 4.6%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 365.00 million (CAGR 22A-27E: 23.2%) in FY27E, with EBITDA equal to € 42.55 million (corresponding to a margin of 10.6%), up from € 8.37 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 5.9%). On the balance sheet level, however, we have updated our estimates regarding NFP, now expecting for FY23E an NFP equal to € 40.68 million of debt. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Mexedia based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.50% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € € 199.5 million. The target price is € 35.00, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |