| Pozzi Milano, in its financial statements as of June 30th, 2023, announced revenues from the sale of finished products of € 8.41 million, substantially confirming, net of a small drop (-1.7%), its turnover of the same period of the previous financial year, which closed with sales revenues of € 8.56 million. EBITDA for the period came in equal to € 1.15 million, a clear improvement (56.0%) compared to the first half of the previous year, equal to € 0.74 million, attributable to efficiency improvements in the sales mix. EBIT was also positive, passing from € 0.74 million to € 0.93 million, while Net Income increased from € 0.41 million to € 0.65 million. In light of the 1H23A half-year results, we have slightly adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate a value of production for FY23E of € 22.30 million, and an EBITDA of € 2.45 million. The downward revision of year-end revenues prudently takes into account the spending crisis, but is compensated by an increasing margin of approximately one percentage point. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 30.00 million (CAGR: FY22A – FY26E: 8.4%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 3.90 million, corresponding to a margin of 13.0%, up from € 2.19 million in FY22A, corresponding to a margin of 10.1%. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Pozzi Milano based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 59.4 million. The target price is therefore equal to €1.75, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |