| In 2024, Intred recorded solid results, with a Value of Production amounting to € 55.89 million, up by 10.6% compared to the previous year, mainly driven by Ultra-Broadband services and recurring fees. EBITDA reached an all-time high of € 24.04 million (+6.7%), with an EBITDA margin of 43.0%. EBIT stood at € 11.76 million, while net profit decreased to € 6.89 million, due to higher depreciation and financial charges related to investments. Net Financial Position (NFP) moved from a debt position of € 20.91 million to a debt position of € 32.86 million. The proprietary network exceeded 13,500 km (+14.6%) thanks to investments totaling € 32.2 million, contributing to the increase in users and strengthening the Group’s infrastructure. In light of the results published in the FY24A annual report, we have revised our estimates for the current year and the following years. Specifically, we estimate a Value of Production for FY25E of € 58.50 million and EBITDA of € 26.30 million, corresponding to a margin of 45.0%. For the subsequent years, we expect the Value of Production to increase to € 70.50 million (CAGR 24A–27E: 8.0%) in FY27E, with EBITDA reaching € 35.25 million (corresponding to a margin of 50.0%), up from € 24.04 million in FY24A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 43.0%). At the balance sheet level, we estimate a Net Financial Position of € 11.53 million for FY27E. We conducted the valuation of Intred’s equity value based on the DCF method and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which prudentially includes a specific risk of 1.0% in the WACC calculation) results in an equity value of € 392.5 million. The equity value of Intred based on market multiples is € 244.0 million. The average equity value therefore amounts to approximately € 318.3 million. We set a target price of € 20.00, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
