| In the half-yearly report as of June 30th, 2023, Matica Fintec reported consolidated revenues of € 11.44 million and parent company revenues of € 9.50 million, recording a positive growth (+14.0%) compared to 1H22A, which saw revenues of € 8.34 million. The consolidated value of production came in equal to € 11.82 million, up from the equivalent figure for 1H22A of € 8.77 million. EBITDA for the period came in at € 2.06 million (€ 2.34 million in 1H22A), with a margin on revenues of 18.0%, thus marking a slowdown compared to 1H22A. EBIT was € 1.61 million, compared to € 1.94 million in 1H22A, with an EBIT margin of 14.1%. Net Income was also positive, amounting to a value of € 0.88 million. In light of the results published in the annual report for 1H23A, we estimate a revenue volume for FY23E equal to € 21.00 million, and an expected growth over the next three years up to € 25.00 million in FY25E. Marginality is in line to be positive for the end of the year, with an EBITDA of € 3.60 million for FY23E, corresponding to a margin of 17.1%, despite the slowdowns. In the following years, we expect the EBITDA of Matica Fintec to rise to € 4.45 million in FY25E, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 17.8%. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Matica Fintec based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk equal to 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 33.7 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Matica Fintec was € 29.8 million (including a 25.0% discount). The result gives an average equity value of approximately € 31.7 million. The target price is € 2.90, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |