| In the first half of 2026, the SEIF Group recorded a Value of Production of € 19.13 million, up 6.0% compared to € 18.04 million in 1H25A, mainly supported by the growth in digital subscriptions and advertising revenues, which offset the decline in the print segment. EBITDA stood at € 2.12 million, more than doubling from € 1.05 million in 1H25A, with the EBITDA margin improving from 5.8% to 11.1%, thanks to the evolution of the revenue mix and industrial efficiency measures. EBIT approached break-even, standing at € -0.02 million compared to € -1.25 million in 1H25A, while Net Income improved from € -1.60 million to € -0.28 million. From a balance sheet perspective, NFP stood at € 4.90 million of debt, slightly improving from € 4.95 million in FY25A, thanks to stronger operating cash generation and working capital dynamics, despite continued investments in audiovisual content and digital innovation. In light of the 1H26A results, we update our FY26E-FY28E estimates, taking into account the persistent contraction of the print publishing market and the timing required to develop and monetize the Group’s diversification initiatives. For FY26E, we estimate revenues of € 33.30 million and EBITDA of € 4.80 million, with an EBITDA margin of 12.0%, supported by growth in digital activities and advertising, as well as operating efficiency measures. For the following years, we expect the consolidation of audiovisual activities, the development of the education offering and the enhancement of technological investments to support revenue growth to € 41.30 million in FY28E, corresponding to an FY26E-FY28E CAGR of 11.4%, in line with the 2026-2028 Business Plan, and EBITDA of € 8.65 million, with an EBITDA margin of 18.0%. From a balance sheet perspective, we expect a gradual reduction in NFP from € 4.00 million of debt in FY26E to € 2.40 million in FY28E, supported by stronger operating cash generation, while also factoring in the continuation of investments required for the Group’s strategic development. We conducted an equity valuation of SEIF using the DCF methodology. Based on our estimates and assumptions, the equity value comes to €6.4 million. The target price is €0.28, with a HOLD rating and MEDIUM risk. |
