| In 1H26A, Longino & Cardenal recorded revenues of € 15.60 million, down 7.3% compared to € 16.84 million in 1H25A, mainly reflecting the closure of the New York branch and the slowdown in Dubai, which was affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite the decline in revenues, the contribution margin remained substantially stable at € 4.11 million, with its incidence on revenues improving to 26.3% from 24.6%. EBITDA returned to positive territory at € 0.47 million, compared to € -0.01 million in 1H25A, with an EBITDA margin of 3.0%, benefiting from cost rationalization initiatives, the outsourcing of logistics and process automation. EBIT stood at € 0.24 million, compared to € -0.26 million in the comparable period, while Net Income returned to positive territory at € 0.09 million from a loss of € 1.30 million in 1H25A. From a balance sheet perspective, NFP increased to € 5.41 million compared to € 4.95 million at year-end 2025. In light of the results published in the 1H26A interim financial report, we partially revise our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we estimate FY26E revenues of € 35.00 million and EBITDA of € 1.95 million, corresponding to a margin of 5.6%. For the following years, we expect sales to increase to € 36.40 million in FY28E (25A-28E CAGR: 1.0%), with EBITDA reaching € 2.15 million, corresponding to a margin of 5.9%, compared to € 1.46 million in FY25A, equal to an EBITDA margin of 4.1%. From a balance sheet perspective, we estimate FY28E NFP at € 2.08 million of debt. Due to the lack of directly comparable companies, we have assessed Longino & Cardenal’s equity value using only the DCF method. The DCF model (which prudently includes a 2.5% specific risk premium in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of € 15.7 million. The target price is € 2.50, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
