| In 1H26A, Predict reported production value of €4.66 million, up 75.9% from €2.65 million in 1H25A, driven by strong revenue growth and the capitalization of €0.31 million in personnel costs related to Research & Development activities. EBITDA came in at €0.40 million, a significant improvement from €–0.27 million in 1H25A, with an EBITDA margin of 9.8%, marking a return to positive margins thanks primarily to the increased scale of traditional businesses, despite continued investments in innovative SBUs. EBIT was essentially break-even at € -1 thousand, compared to € -0.43 million in 1H25A, while Net Income stood at € -521, a significant improvement compared to € -0.44 million in 1H25A. In terms of financial position, Adjusted NFP shifted from €2.04 million in cash position (positive) in FY25A to €1.15 million, still in a cash-positive position, primarily reflecting investments to support growth. In light of the results published in the 1H26A interim financial report, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we estimate FY26E Value of Production at € 10.00 million and EBITDA at € 1.10 million, corresponding to a margin of 12.2% on revenues. For the following years, we expect Value of Production to increase to € 12.30 million (25A-28E CAGR: 11.5%) in FY28E, with EBITDA reaching € 1.50 million, corresponding to a margin of 13.3%, compared to € 0.78 million in FY25A, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 10.2%. From a balance sheet perspective, we estimate NFP to be cash positive at € 1.87 million in FY26E, with a progressive improvement expected to € 3.22 million in FY28E, supported by increasing cash generation as the development plan matures. We valued Predict’s equity value using both the DCF methodology and the market multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method, which prudentially includes a 2.5% specific risk premium in the WACC calculation, yields an equity value of € 9.4 million. Predict’s equity value based on market multiples amounts to € 9.0 million. This results in an average equity value of approximately € 9.2 million. The target price is € 1.20, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
