At the end of FY25A, the Group’s value of production amounted to € 8.09 million, representing a decrease of -14.4% compared to € 9.46 million in FY24A and coming in below our previous estimates of € 8.80 million. EBITDA for FY25A was negative at -€ 0.27 million, declining from € 0.61 million in FY24A and below our prior estimates of € 0.55 million. The EBITDA margin stood at -3.3%, compared to 6.4% in the previous year. EBIT for FY25A, after depreciation and amortisation of € 0.53 million, amounted to -€ 0.79 million, worsening compared to € 0.25 million in FY24A. This resulted in an EBIT margin of -9.8%, compared to 2.6% in the previous year, reflecting the combined impact of lower volumes and reduced profitability. Net Income stood at -€ 0.65 million, compared to € 0.15 million in FY24A.
In light of the results published in the FY25A annual report, we have slightly revised our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we forecast a value of production for FY26E of € 9.30 million and an EBITDA of € 0.75 million, corresponding to a margin of 8.1%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase to € 11.70 million (25A–28E CAGR: 13.1%) by FY28E, with EBITDA reaching € 1.30 million (corresponding to a margin of 11.1%). At the balance sheet level, we estimate a NFP of € 0.65 million of debt for FY28E. We carried out the valuation of Deodato.gallery’s equity value using the DCF methodology (which, in the WACC calculation, prudently includes a specific risk premium of 2.5%). This results in an equity value of approximately € 11.0 million. The target price is € 0.35, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.
