| As of December 31st, 2025, Convergenze reported a value of production of € 25.90 million, slightly down compared to € 26.61 million in FY24A. This trend is attributable to a cyclical contraction affecting both Business Units, TLC and Energy, within a context influenced by exogenous factors. Adjusted EBITDA stood at € 4.15 million, slightly decreasing from € 5.03 million recorded in FY24A, with an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 16.0% (18.9% as at December 31st, 2024). Reported EBITDA amounted to € 3.73 million, down from € 5.19 million in FY24A, with a margin of 14.4% (19.5% in FY24A), incorporating negative non-recurring items totaling approximately € 0.43 million. As a result, EBIT, after depreciation and amortisation of approximately € 2.29 million, amounted to € 1.43 million, compared to € 2.46 million in 2024, while Net Income remained positive at approximately € 0.49 million, albeit decreasing from € 1.25 million in the previous period. In light of the results published in the FY25A annual report, we have slightly revised our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. We forecast a value of production for FY26E of € 27.20 million and an EBITDA of € 4.65 million, corresponding to a margin of 17.1%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase to € 32.20 million (CAGR 25A–28E: 7.5%) by FY28E, with EBITDA reaching € 6.05 million (corresponding to a margin of 18.8%), up from € 3.73 million in FY25A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 14.4%). At the balance sheet level, we estimate a Net Financial Position of € 1.30 million in debt for FY28E. We have conducted the valuation of Convergenze’s equity value based on both the DCF methodology and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which, in the WACC calculation, prudently includes a specific risk premium of 2.5%) yields an equity value of € 32.1 million. The equity value of Convergenze based on market multiples amounts to € 29.3 million. This results in an average equity value of approximately € 30.7 million. The target price is € 4.10 (previously € 4.50), with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
