| At the end of 1H25A, the value of production amounted to € 8.78 million, up 8.5% compared to € 8.10 million recorded in 1H24A, driven by the increase in core revenues, particularly supported by the OOH Advertising segment. EBITDA was negative at € 1.32 million, compared to a positive value of € 0.87 million in the same period of the previous year. EBIT closed with a loss of € 1.46 million, versus a positive result of € 0.82 million in 1H24A, while Net Income stood at € -1.19 million, down from the profit of € 0.59 million recorded in the same period of the previous year. On the balance sheet side, Net Financial Position moved from € 6.35 million at the end of 2024 to € 8.25 million as of June 30th, 2025. In light of the results published in the 1H25A interim report, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the following years. Specifically, we estimate for FY25E a value of production of € 15.50 million and an EBITDA of € 0.70 million, corresponding to a margin of 4.5%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase to € 23.00 million in FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 15.7%), with an expected EBITDA of € 2.30 million, equivalent to an EBITDA margin of 10.0%, up from € 0.62 million recorded in FY24A (EBITDA margin of 4.2%). On the balance sheet side, we estimate for FY27E a net financial debt position of € 1.48 million. Lastly, since no significant developments have yet been recorded in the disposal project of the real estate division, we postpone the expected sale from 2026 to 2027. We have conducted the equity value assessment of Vivenda based on the DCF methodology and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which prudentially includes a specific risk of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of € 12.7 million. The equity value of Vivenda based on market multiples amounts to € 15.0 million. The resulting average equity value is approximately € 13.9 million. The target price is € 1.50, with a BUY rating and a MEDIUM risk profile. |
