| RIn 1H25A, Confinvest’s revenues amounted to €47.82 million, showing a strong increase compared to €16.07 million recorded in the same period of the previous year. First Margin, a true proxy for the turnover of a gold market dealer as it includes the net balance of transactions and the effect of changes in inventory, amounted to €2.00 million, up 52.8% compared to €1.31 million recorded in 1H24A. EBITDA increased by 68.3%, amounting to €1.07 million at June 30, 2025, compared to €0.63 million in 1H24A. As a result, the EBITDA margin was 53.5%, up from 48.5% in the first half of 2024. EBIT also grew (+91.9%), reaching €1.03 million compared to €0.53 million in 1H24A. Net income was also positive, standing at €0.69 million, up 103.3% compared to €0.34 million at June 30, 2024. In light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H25A, we are revising our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate revenues for FY25E of €65.00 million with a First Margin of €3.00 million (First Margin % of 4.6%) and EBITDA of €1.10 million. For subsequent years, we expect sales to reach €45.00 million in FY27E with a First Margin of €3.90 million and EBITDA of €2.05 million, up from €1.00 million in FY24A. In terms of assets, we expect an improvement in NFP, which according to our estimates will go from €0.59 million in debt in FY24A to €2.18 million in cash positive in FY27E. We have assessed Confinvest’s equity value using the DCF methodology. Based on our estimates and assumptions, the equity value is €17.6 million. We therefore confirm the target price of €2.50, BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |
