| In 1H25A, Simone recorded a production value of €8.34 million, down 13.4% compared to €9.63 million in 1H24A, primarily due to the postponement of several major public competitions. EBITDA amounted to €0.39 million, compared to €1.10 million in 1H24A, with a margin of 4.7%. EBIT, after total depreciation and amortisation of €0.85 million, was negative at €–0.46 million, versus a positive €0.58 million in 1H24A. Consolidated Net Income stood at €–0.52 million, compared to a positive result of €0.32 million in 1H24A. From a balance sheet perspective, the Net Financial Position (NFP) as at 30 June 2025 was €1.15 million in net debt, versus a cash-positive position of €0.27 million as at 31 December 2024, mainly reflecting investments made during the half-year period. In light of the results published in the Half-Year Report for 1H25A and the recent M&A transactions previously mentioned, we are revising our estimates for the current year and the following years. Specifically, we estimate FY25E value of production at €18.70 million and EBITDA at €2.20 million, corresponding to a margin of 11.8%. For the subsequent years, we expect the value of production to increase to €21.70m in FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 7.3%), with EBITDA reaching €4.10 million (corresponding to a margin of 18.9%), up from €2.08 million in FY24A (equivalent to an EBITDA margin of 11.8%). From a balance sheet perspective, according to our estimates, the net financial position (NFP) could reach a debt level of €4.02 million in FY25E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Simone based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 21.7 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Simone was calculated as € 12.7 million (including a 25.0% discount). The result is an average equity value of approximately € 17.2 million. The target price is € 2.30, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
