| The results for the first half of 2025 confirm that Convergenze continues to progress steadily along its growth trajectory: the company reported a 5.4% increase in value of production, rising from € 12.10 million in 1H24A to € 12.75 million in the first six months of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to € 2.18 million, slightly down from € 2.27 million recorded in the first half of 2024 (-3.7% YoY), with an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 17.1% (18.7% in 1H2024). EBIT stood at € 1.03 million, down 19.1% compared to € 1.27 million in the first half of 2024. Net income as of June 30th, 2025 was positive at approximately € 0.49 million, compared to € 0.61 million achieved in the same period of the previous year. In light of the results published in the 1H25A interim report, we have slightly revised our estimates for both the current year and the following years. The value of production for FY25E is estimated at € 27.20 million, with EBITDA of € 5.20 million, corresponding to a margin of 19.1%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to grow to € 34.15 million in FY27E (CAGR 25E–27E: 12.0%), with EBITDA reaching € 6.85 million (corresponding to a margin of 20.1%), up from € 5.03 million in FY24A (EBITDA margin of 18.9%). We conducted the equity value assessment of Convergenze using both the DCF method and the multiples of a peer group of comparable companies. The DCF method (which, for prudential purposes, includes a specific risk factor of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of € 37.3 million. The equity value of Convergenze based on market multiples amounts to € 30.2 million. As a result, the average equity value is approximately € 33.8 million. The target price remains unchanged at € 4.50, with a BUY rating and a MEDIUM risk profile. |
