| Saccheria F.lli Franceschetti closed the first half of 2025 with revenues of €10.16 million, up 11.7% compared to €9.09 million in 1H24A. EBITDA amounted to €1.34 million, an increase of 21.9% versus €1.10 million in 1H24A. Consequently, the EBITDA margin stood at 13.2%, compared to 12.1% in the first half of 2024. EBIT reached €1.13 million, showing a marked improvement of 28.3% from €0.88 million recorded in 1H24A. As a result, Net Income came in at €0.75 million (€0.55 million in 1H24A). The Net Financial Position remained broadly stable, moving from €0.52 million of debt in FY24A to €0.84 million of debt in 1H25A. In light of the results published in the 1H25A report, we almost entirely confirm our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY25E revenues at €19.50 million and EBITDA at €2.35 million, corresponding to a margin of 12.1%. For the subsequent years, we expect revenues to increase to €22.50 million (CAGR 24A-27E: 8.4%) in FY27E, with EBITDA amounting to €2.90 million (corresponding to a margin of 12.9%), compared to €2.10 million in FY24A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 11.9%). On the balance sheet, we estimate a NFP for FY25E at €0.45 million in debt. Regarding estimated investments, we expect Capex for 2025E-2027E to amount to approximately €0.51 million. We carried out the valuation of the equity value of Saccheria F.lli Franceschetti on the basis of the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 22.0 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Saccheria F.lli Franceschetti was calculated to be € 18.8 million (including a 25% discount). The results give an average equity value of approximately € 20.4 million. The target price is € 2.30, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |
