| In 1H25A, the Group reported markedly improved results, with consolidated revenues of € 15.13 mln (+20.7%) and EBITDA of € 2.89 mln, driven by higher revenues and efficiency measures on direct costs. The combined effect of these factors led to an EBITDA margin of 17.8%, compared to 3.9% in the prior period. EBIT returned to positive territory at € 0.49 mln, versus € – 2.00 mln in 1H24A, while Net Income amounted to € 0.04 mln. The recurring component, demonstrating the scalability of the business model, remained stable at 72.2% of revenues, supported by the new Doxee Platform. At the balance sheet level, the Group’s Net Financial Position improved to € 15.41 mln, from € 19.22 mln in FY24A. In light of the results published in the 1H25A half-year report, we largely confirm our estimates for the current year and the coming years. Specifically, we forecast FY25E Value of Production of € 34.00 mln and EBITDA of € 6.10 mln, corresponding to a margin of 17.9%. For the following years, we expect Value of Production to rise to € 42.00 mln in FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 12.1%), with EBITDA of € 10.80 mln (margin of 25.7%), compared to € 2.94 mln in FY24A (EBITDA margin of 9.9%). At the balance sheet level, we forecast FY27E Net Financial Position of € 6.70 mln of net debt. We evaluated Doxee’s equity value using both the DCF method and peer group multiples. The DCF method (including a 2.50% company-specific risk in the WACC as a conservative measure) results in an equity value of € 75.3 million. The equity value based on market multiples is € 73.1 million. The average equity value stands at approximately € 74.2 million. The target price is € 6.40, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
