| Operating revenues for FY24A reached €361.43 million, up 45.6% from €248.23 million in FY23A, and exceeding previous estimates of €321.10 million. In 2024, EBITDA came in at €9.43 million, in line with the €9.51 million of the previous year, and below our estimates of €12.60 million. EBIT, after depreciation and write-downs totaling €2.08 million, stood at €7.34 million, slightly down from €7.51 million in FY23A. Net Income was €3.01 million in FY24A, compared to €4.24 million in FY23A. From a balance sheet perspective, NFP on 31 December 2024, stood at €45.94 million of debt, up from €25.67 million from the previous year. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY24A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate an FY25E value of production of € 396.00 million, and an EBITDA of € 12.45 million, corresponding to a margin of 3.1%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 490.00 million (CAGR 24A-27E: 10.7%) in FY27E, with EBITDA equal to € 21.00 million (corresponding to a margin of 4.3%), up compared to € 9.43 million in FY24A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 2.6%). From a balance sheet perspective, we expect a gradual improvement in Net Financial Position (NFP), which, according to our estimates, will move from a net debt of €45.94 million in FY24A to a net debt of €50.48 million in FY25E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Pasquarelli Auto based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 1.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 50.5 million. Using market multiples, the equity value was calculated to be € 63.9 million (including a 25.0% discount). The results give an average equity value of approximately € 57.2 million. The target price is € 2.30, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
