| In 2024, the Value of Production amounted to € 27.34 mln, up from € 26.40 mln in 2023 but below our estimate of € 29.00 mln. The Software House division contributed € 14.98 mln (+3.6%), Engineering € 5.16 mln (+31.9%), while Digital Infrastructures declined to € 7.19 mln (-10.1%). EBITDA decreased to € 4.29 mln (-3.2%), with a margin of 15.7% (vs 16.8% in 2023), affected by non-recurring costs and the downturn in the mass retail sector (GDO). EBIT dropped to € 1.91 mln (€ 2.26 mln in 2023), while Net Income came in at € 1.05 mln. Net Financial Position (NFP) worsened to a debt of € 2.30 mln, mainly due to the partial voluntary takeover bid and the final payment for the InRebus acquisition. Following the FY24A results disclosed in the annual report, we have revised our estimates for the current year and the following years. The update also includes the effects of the acquisition of RTC S.p.A., whose contribution will be fully reflected in the consolidated perimeter starting from 2025. Specifically, we estimate a FY25E Value of Production of € 41.30 mln and EBITDA of € 6.20 mln, corresponding to a 15.0% margin. In the following years, we expect the Value of Production to grow to € 49.50 mln by FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 21.9%), with EBITDA reaching € 7.90 mln (16.0% margin), up from € 4.29 mln in FY24A (15.7% EBITDA margin). On the balance sheet side, we forecast a cash-positive NFP of € 1.38 mln by FY27E. We conducted FOS’s equity valuation using both the DCF method and a peer group multiples comparison. The DCF approach (including a specific risk premium of 2.5% for prudential purposes in the WACC calculation) returns an equity value of € 41.2 mln. The peer multiples valuation yields an equity value of € 40.8 mln. The resulting average equity value stands at approximately € 41.0 mln. The target price is € 6.00, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
