| In the consolidated financial statements as of December 31, 2024, Palingeo reported revenues of € 62.99 million, up 7.7% compared to the € 58.50 million recorded in the previous year. EBITDA for the period amounted to € 14.94 million, an increase compared to the FY23A value of € 13.14 million, though slightly below our estimate of € 15.35 million. The EBITDA margin stood at 22.1%, up from the 2023 figure of 21.4% and also higher than our previous estimate of 21.5%. EBIT reached € 11.34 million, an improvement over the € 9.47 million recorded in the previous year (+19.7%). Net income came in at € 7.62 million, an increase compared to the € 6.71 million reported in the previous year. From a balance sheet perspective, the Net Financial Position improved, with a debt position decreasing from € 7.82 million to € 5.57 million. In light of the results published in the FY24A Annual Report, we are adjusting our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY25E production value of € 68.25 million and EBITDA of € 14.90 million, corresponding to a margin of 21.8%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase up to € 75.15 mln (CAGR 24A-27E: 3.6%) in FY27E, with EBITDA of € 16.60 mln (corresponding to a margin of 22.1%), up from € 14.94 mln in FY24A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 22.1%). In terms of assets, for FY27E we estimate a cash positive NFP of € 5.44 million. We conducted the valuation of Palingeo’s equity value based on the DCF methodology and the multiples from a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which includes a prudential specific risk of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of € 88.2 million. The equity value of Palingeo using market multiples is € 76.2 million. This results in an average equity value of about € 82.2 million. The target price is € 11.90, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
