| As of June 30, 2024, revenues amounted to € 11.91 million, marking a growth of 5.5% compared to the € 11.28 million recorded in the first half of 2023. The EBITDA for the period amounts to € 2.38 million, in line with the 1H23A figure, which was € 2.34 million. The EBITDA margin stands at 17.4%, compared to the 17.1% recorded in 1H23A. EBIT stands at € 1.36 million, showing a slight decrease compared to € 1.46 million in 1H23A. Net Income is € 0.86 million, up 7.5% compared to € 0.80 million in 1H23A. The NFP as of June 30, 2024, shows a worsening, reaching € 1.76 million in debt, compared to the cash-positive position of € 0.34 million recorded at the end of FY23A. In light of the results published in the semi-annual report for 1H24A, we confirm our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. Specifically, we estimate a Value of Production for FY24E of € 29.00 million and an EBITDA of € 4.60 million, corresponding to a margin of 15.9%. For the following years, we expect the Value of Production to increase to € 36.00 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 10.9%) in FY26E, with EBITDA reaching € 7.00 million (corresponding to a margin of 19.4%), up from € 4.43 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 16.8%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Fos on the basis of the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 39.9 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Fos was calculated to be € 38.0 million (including a 25% discount). This results is an average equity value of approximately € 39.0 million. The target price is € 5.70, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |