| The value of production at the end of the first half of 2024 amounted to € 56.54 million, reflecting a 14.5% increase compared to the first half of 2023, which recorded € 49.39 million. EBITDA reached € 4.28 million, marking a growth of 17.3% compared to 1H23A, where it amounted to € 3.65 million. Similarly, there was an improvement in the EBITDA margin, which increased from 7.4% to 7.6%. EBIT stood at € 2.10 million, recording a growth of 10.0% compared to the previous period (€ 1.91 million). The consolidated Net Income amounted to € 0.29 million, showing a decrease compared to the previous period, where it reached € 0.49 million. In light of the results published in the half-year report for 2024, we confirm our estimates almost entirely. We estimate a value of production for FY24 of € 112.50 million and an EBITDA of € 8.75 million, corresponding to a margin of 7.8%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase to up to € 148.65 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 14.2%) in FY26E, with an EBITDA of € 13.00 million (corresponding to a margin of 8.7%), growing from € 7.23 million in FY23A (with an EBITDA margin of 7.2%). Lastly, we expect an improvement in the NFP, which, according to our estimates, will move from a debt value of € 2.87 million in FY23A to € 0.55 million in FY26E. We conducted the valuation of Spindox’s equity value based on the DCF method and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which for prudential purposes includes a specific risk of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of € 95.8 million. The equity value of Spindox using market multiples comes out to be € 93.7 million (including a discount of 25.0%). This results in an average equity value of approximately € 94.8 million. The target price is therefore of € 15.80, rating BUY and MEDIUM risk. |