| As of December 31, 2023, Matica Fintec reported a turnover of € 22.59 million, achieving a growth of 15.9%, compared to the 2022 financial year, in which revenues amounted to € 19.49 million, and exceeding our previous estimate of € 21.00 million. EBITDA at the end of FY23A was € 4.48 million, down from the FY22A figure of € 4.97 million, but significantly exceeding our previous estimate of € 3.60 million. Therefore, the margin came in at 19.8%. EBIT stands at € 3.62 million. Finally, the Net Income is was equal to € 2.20 million. The NFP as of December 31, 2023, was cash positive for € 1.81 million, marking an improvement on the previous period, in which it amounted to € 1.45 million (cash positive). In light of the results published in the annual report for FY23A, we have slightly adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate a sales volume for FY24E worth € 23.00 million, and an EBITDA equal to € 3.90 million, corresponding to a margin of 17.0%. In the following years, we expect the value of sales to rise to € 25.00 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 3.4%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 4.40 million (corresponding to a margin of 17.6%). On the balance sheet, we expect an improvement in the Adjusted NFP, which according to our estimates will rise from € 1.71 million (cash positive) in FY23A to € 4.06 million (cash positive) in FY26E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Matica Fintec based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk equal to 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 22.8 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Matica Fintec was € 23.4 million (including a 25.0% discount). The result gives an average equity value of approximately € 23.1 million. The target price is € 2.10, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |