| In 1H23A, The value of production stood at € 5.30 million, compared to a value of € 6.42 million recorded as of June 30th, 2022. EBITDA, amounting to € 2.50 million, decreased by 30.7% compared to the value of € 3.60 million in the first half of the previous year, from a margin of 56.0%in 1H22A to 47.1% in 1H23A. EBIT, after depreciation and amortization of € 0.25 million, stood at € 2.24 million (€ 3.00 million in 1H22A). EBIT Margin was 42.3%, compared to a 1H22A figure of 46.7%. NFP shows an improvement, from € 5.38 million in FY22A to € 2.16 million. In light of the results published in the half-year report for 1H23A, we are confirming our estimates for both the current year and subsequent years. In particular, we estimate a FY23E production value of € 13.50 million and an EBITDA of € 5.35 million, corresponding to a margin of 39.6%. For subsequent years, we expect the value of production to increase to € 23.50 million in FY25E, with an EBITDA of € 10.50 million (corresponding to a margin of 44.7%), up from € 4.24 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 38.9%). We conducted the valuation of Renergetica’s equity value based on the DCF methodology and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC also includes a specific risk equal to 2.5% for prudential purposes) returns an equity value equal to € 115.5 million, compared to a value of € 66.8 million returned by the multiples method (applying a liquidity discount of 25.0%). The result is an average equity value of € 91.2 million. The target price is € 11.25, BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |