| Green Oleo, in its financial report as of December 31, 2023, recorded a value of production of € 62.58 million, of which € 60.57 million attributable to sales revenues, € 2.61 million related to a negative change in inventories, and € 4.62 million representing the item of other revenues. EBITDA amounted to € 1.55 million, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 2.5% on the value of production. EBIT, considering the above, came in with a negative value for 2023, equal to € -1.26 million, after depreciation and amortization of € 2.81 million. Net Income was negative, equal to € -0.59 million. In light of the FY23A results, we have modified our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we now estimate an FY24E value of production of € 67.20 million, and an EBITDA of € 4.70 million, corresponding to a margin of 7.0%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 81.50 million in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 6.10 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 7.5 %), up from the value of € 1.55 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 2.5%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Green Oleo based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk equal to 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 78,1 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Green Oleo is € 45.0 million (including a 25.0% discount). The result gives an average equity value of approximately € 61,6 million. The target price is € 1.90 (prev. € 2.65), with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk.As of June 30th, 2024, the value of production amounts to € 37.51 million, marking an 8.5% increase compared to € 34.56 million in 1H23A. EBITDA stands at € 2.14 million, showing a 104.2% increase compared to € 1.05 million in 1H23A. The EBITDA margin for the semester is 5.7%, which also represents significant growth compared to the 3.0% registered in 1H23A. EBIT is € 0.73 million, a sharp improvement compared to – € 0.16 million in 1H23A. Net income is € 0.08 million, remaining largely consistent with the 1H23A figure of € 0.12 million. On the balance sheet, an improvement in the NFP is evident, decreasing from € 14.35 million as of December 31st, 2023, to € 12.23 million in 1H24A. In light of the 1H24A financial results, we are slightly adjusting our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. Specifically, we estimate a FY24E value of production of € 67.50 million and an EBITDA of € 4.25 million, corresponding to a margin of 6.3%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase to € 82.20 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 9.5%) by FY26E, with EBITDA reaching € 6.15 million (corresponding to a margin of 7.5%), compared to € 1.55 million recorded in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 2.5%). We conducted the equity value assessment of Green Oleo based on the DCF methodology and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which, in the WACC calculation, prudentially includes a specific risk of 2.5%) returns an equity value of € 76.8 million. The equity value of Green Oleo using market multiples is € 52.5 million (including a 25.0% discount). This results in an average equity value of approximately € 64.7 million. The target price is € 2.00 (prev. € 1.90), with a BUY rating and a MEDIUM risk. |