| On December 11th, 2023, Redelfi announced the approval of the 2023-2026 Business Plan update, which occurred as a result of the change of focus that includes the Company’s acceleration of the expansion of the Green BU, in addition to the development of the recently launched BESS projects in Italy. With the Business Plan update, the Company confirms its intention to focus exclusively on the development of the Green BU. In light of the publication of the New Business Plan 2023-2026 and following the further development of the Green BU, we adjust our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. Specifically, we estimate FY23E value of production of € 10.35 million and EBITDA Adj. of € 4.80 million, corresponding to a margin of 46.4%. For subsequent years, we expect value of production to increase to € 34.85 million (CAGR FY22A – FY26E: 49.9%) in FY26E, with EBITDA Adj. of € 24.15 million (corresponding to a marginality of 69.3%), up from € 1.27 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA Adj. Margin of 28.2%). We conducted the assessment of Redelfi’s equity value based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which in the calculation of WACC also includes for prudential purposes a specific risk of 2.5%) returns an equity value of € 95.8 million. Redelfi’s equity value using market multiples turns out to be € 90.4 million (including a discount of 25.0%). This results in an average equity value of approximately € 93.1 million. The target price is € 11.00, BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |