Alfio Bardolla Training Group (or “ABTG”), classed as an Italian Innovative SME and operating in the sector of non-formal personal financial training on the Italian market and, to a lesser extent, on the Spanish market, has announced the signing of a binding agreement for the acquisition of 51.0% of the share capital of Novarod Srl, a company that owns the Vivisalute brand and, as the first Italian network of private dental practices, has been active on the market for over 10 years. The agreement was developed with the aim of integrating companies with synergies in terms of target customers and digital marketing know-how.
As an effect of this agreement, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate an FY23E value of production amounting to € 18.90 million, and an EBITDA of € 3.80 million, corresponding to a margin of 20.1%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 30.50 million (CAGR 22A-25E: 24.4%) in FY25E, with EBITDA equal to € 8.35 million (corresponding to a margin of 27.4%), up from € 2.48 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 15.6%). On the balance sheet level, we estimate a cash positive NFP for FY23E of € 1.96 million.
We conducted our valuation of the equity value of ABTG based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.50% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 40.8 million. The target price is € 8.00, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.
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