The value of production in 1H23A amounted to € 13.66 million, up by 44.6% compared to the figure for 1H22A, equal to € 9.45 million. EBITDA for the half-year was € 2.34 million, marking an increase of 41.7% compared to the 1H22A figure, equal to € 1.65 million. The EBITDA Margin for the half-year was 17.1%, not far off the 1H22A figure of 17.4%. EBIT amounted to € 1.46 million, an increase of 39.2% compared to the 1H22A figure, equal to € 1.05 million. Net Income came in at € 0.80 million, up 38.7% compared to the 1H22A figure, equal to € 0.58 million. The NFP for the group is cash positive at € 0.49 million, showing an improvement compared to the 2022 end-of-year figure, cash positive by € 0.04 million.
In light of the results published in the half-year report for 1H23A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate a FY23E value of production of € 26.50 million, and an EBITDA of € 4.50 million, corresponding to a margin of 17.0%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 33.00 million (CAGR 22A-25E: 15.2%) in FY25E, with EBITDA equal to € 6.50 million (corresponding to a margin of 19.7%), up compared to € 3.86 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 17.9%).
We conducted our valuation of the equity value of FOS on the basis of the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 48.5 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of FOS was calculated as € 30.8 million (including a 25% discount). The results give an average equity value of approximately € 39.7 million. The target price is € 5.80, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.
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