| In the half year results as of 1H23A, Comal reported a value of production of € 47.03 million, up 22.3% compared to the figure of 1H22A, equal to € 38,44 million. EBITDA for the period came in at € 4.19 million, almost doubling (+94.3%) the 1H22A result of € 2.16 million, with a margin on the value of production of 8.9%. EBIT amounted to € 3.52 million, up 114.2% compared to € 1.64 million in 1H22A, with an EBIT Margin of 7.5%. Net Income was also positive and equal to € 1.63 million, up 93.0% compared to the value of 1H22A, equal to € 0,85 million. In light of the published 1H23A half-year results, we substantially confirm our estimates for both the current year and the coming years, revising only the impact on the income statement of the higher financial charges. In particular, we estimate an FY23E value of production equal to € 103.50 million, and an EBITDA equal to € 9.50 million, corresponding to a margin of 9.2%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 143.00 million (CAGR 22Y-25E: 22.5%) in FY25E, with an EBITDA equal to € 14.30 million (corresponding to a margin of 10.0%), up from € 6.93 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 8.9%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Comal based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 113.4 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Comal is € 86.6 million. The results give an average equity value of € 100.0 million. The target price is € 8.70, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |