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Research, Update 16 Oct 2024

UPDATE 21.05.2024

The value of production reached €9.63 million, an increase of 4.3% compared to €9.24 million in 1H23A. EBITDA amounted to €1.10 million, an increase of 23.6% compared to €0.89 million in the first half of the previous year. The EBITDA margin of 11.4% is higher than the 9.6% recorded in 1H23A. EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of €0.52 million, amounted to €0.58 million, up 15.8% compared to €0.50 million in 1H23A. Net Income stood at €0.32 million, compared to €0.29 million in 1H23A. On the balance sheet, the NFP remained virtually unchanged, with a cash-positive value of €2.32 million, compared to €2.41 million at December 31, 2023.

In light of the results published in the half-year report for 1H24A, we are revising our estimates for both the current year and the coming years.In particular, we now estimate the value of production for FY24E at €19.15 million and EBITDA at €3.10 million, corresponding to a margin of 16.2%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase to €22.05 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 5.3%) in FY26E, with EBITDA reaching €4.20 million, corresponding to a margin of 19.0%, growing from €3.02 million in FY23A (which had an EBITDA Margin of 16.0%).

We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Simone based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 24.0 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Simone was calculated as € 21.0 million (including a 25.0% discount). The result is an average equity value of approximately € 22.5 million. The target price is € 3.00, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.
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